Last night’s 4-3 loss to the White Sox had Jays fans second guessing manager John Gibbons, not only because blown leads by the bullpen seem to hurt more than other defeats, but because of some divisive substitution decisions made by manager John Gibbons. Let’s take a closer look at each one of those situations to determine if Gibby made the right moves. First, here is the FanGraphs win probability graph.
Source: FanGraphs
As you can see from the graph, the Blue Jays had as high as a 73.1% win probability index (per FanGraphs historical situational data) in the 7th inning, with Encarnacion and Lind on base and J.P. Arencibia having homered earlier in the frame. This probability dropped to a low of 7.8% in the 8th when the White Sox took a 4-2 lead. Once again in the 9th, it was Encarnacion and Lind reaching base and giving the Jays a 37.0% chance of a victory, but ultimately Addison Reed was able to close out the game, leaving the tying run on first base.
Turning our attention to second guessing Gibbons’ decisions, let’s look at each one individually.
1) J.P. Arencibia batting third in the lineup
When I saw the starting lineup, I questioned Gibbons’ decision to have Arencibia bat in Jose Bautista’s customary three-spot. We’re well aware of J.P.’s power (he entered the game with a team leading 4 home runs) but equally conscious of his lack of plate discipline and propensity to strike out. Prior to last night, Arencibia had walked only once in 2013 and struck out 19 times, with an OBP of only .265. That’s not exactly what you’d hope for in your #3 hitter. With Brett Lawrie returning to the lineup, he may have been a better choice, but I’m sure Gibbons is trying to ease Lawrie back into action without the pressure of batting in as many high leverage situations. I still would have gone with Lawrie, or moved Encarnacion to #3 with everybody else moving up a spot. In the end, Arencibia went 2-for-4 with another HR, so in hindsight, Gibbons gets a pass here.
Verdict: Good call, Gibby.
2) Rajai Davis pinch hits for Colby Rasmus in the 7th inning
Prior to the season, Gibbons made it clear that Rasmus would sit against tough lefthanded starters and he’d also consider going to his bench for a right handed pinch hitter if the situation dictated. I’ll admit that I was ecstatic to hear these words from the manager, given that Rasmus has really struggled against southpaws. His career line includes a .630 OPS, .282 wOBA and 73 wRC+. In other words, against lefties, Rasmus hits like John McDonald. Surprisingly, his BB and SO rates don’t show much of a split difference (8.7 % BB, 23.8 % K vs. LHP; 9.0 % BB, 23.3 % K vs. RHP) but his BABIP drops markedly (.256 vs. .299) as does his power, evidenced by a drop in ISO (isolated slugging – essentially SLG less AVG) from .199 to .137.
On the bench, Rajai Davis shows opposite split tendencies, faring much better against lefthanded pitchers. He sports a lifetime .763 OPS, .336 wOBA and 107 wRC+ against lefties. Not awe-inspiring numbers, but certainly better than Rasmus. That said, Colby was 2-for-2 thus far in the game, including a home run. We also know that Rasmus is the team’s most competent centre fielder and had already made a great running catch going back to the wall in the first inning. By pinch hitting Davis in the 7th, it meant Emilio Bonifacio would patrol centre field for the remainder of the game.
Hindsight is 20/20 as we know, and Davis struck out in the 7th (vs. a lefty) and flew out in the 9th (vs. a righty) and Bonifacio was unable to run down Dayan Viciedo’s key run-scoring double in the 9th. That said, I think Gibby made a sound decision pinch hitting for Rasmus. Furthermore, after watching Viciedo’s hit replayed, I don’t believe even Colby could have tracked it down.
Verdict: Good call, Gibby.
3) Steve Delabar returns in the 8th for a second inning of work
Generally speaking, outside of a couple of bad outings by the 7th and 8th (!) members of the bullpen, Toronto relievers had pitched quite well early in the season. Darren Oliver has looked shaky but the rest of the ‘pen, including Steve Delabar, has been effective. Delabar had an easy 8th inning, retiring the side in order by way of a strikeout and two ground outs. For his career, Delabar has actually shown to be quite durable, as evidenced by his performance in games which his pitch count reaches 26-50. In those situations, his opponents’ OPS actually drops from .705 to .588, suggesting he’s more than capable of pitching in stints of more than one inning. As it turned out, Delabar struggled with his control to begin the 9th inning, and both of the walks he surrendered came around to score. I think this is yet another case of right decision, wrong outcome for Gibbons and the Blue Jays.
Verdict: Good call, Gibby.
4) Jose Bautista is not used as a pinch hitter in the 9th inning
Prior to last night’s game, the team announced that Jose Bautista would not start due to lingering back spasms and an ear infection. However, it was stated that Bautista was available for pinch hitting duties. Fast forward to the 9th inning, with the tying run on first base and the light hitting duo of Rajai Davis and Maicer Izturis due to bat. Both batters failed to reach base, and ultimately the Jays lost by a run, stranding a runner on first base.
Without knowing how Bautista was feeling at that time, we have to take the team’s words at face value and assume he was available to pinch hit. I won’t bother to quote the stats, but it’s fair to say that the Jays left their best hitter on the bench in a very clutch situation. Given the defensive concerns that might follow, I would have elected to have pinch hit Bautista for Davis.
Verdict: Wrong decision, Gibbons.
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